Trump is surging
10:16 PM (11 hours ag
Dear MoveOn member,
A new Washington Post/ABC News poll out today shows Donald Trump tied with Clinton nationally.1 Yesterday, the poll actually showed Trump up by 1 point—a first since May and a “sharp turnaround from a large Clinton lead” just one week ago. The race is now “exceedingly close.”2
And this poll isn’t alone. Another tracking poll has the race tied today, and expert Nate Silver’s forecast also shows Donald Trump’s chances surging over the past week.3,4
This latest polling is alarming, to say the least, but MoveOn has been planning for a tight race for seven months—and we’re laser-focused on the one thing that will decide the race: voter turnout.
It’s crunch time for our massive get-out-the-vote operation. We’re knocking on doors across eight battleground states to reach progressive voters who have not yet committed to voting for Hillary Clinton.
Can you chip in $2.70 now to support our get-out-the-vote operation in the crucial final days before Election Day?
Trump won the most primary votes of any Republican presidential candidate in history.5 And now, polls show that his supporters are more enthusiastic and committed to voting than Clinton’s.6
That means we’re going to have to work harder than the GOP to get our voters to the polls. And that’s particularly the case for first-time voters and Democrats who don’t vote consistently—precisely the voters that MoveOn is focused on getting to the polls.
MoveOn’s nearly 200 organizers are continuing to recruit and train tens of thousands of volunteers to knock on doors, make phone calls, and send texts to more than one million targeted voters in swing states, with neighbors talking to neighbors about the many reasons why it’s so important to vote. The research shows that it’s this kind of one-on-one contact that boosts voter turnout.7
Our organizers will work day and night, tirelessly, until the last polls close. Whatever you donate today, we will put directly where it’s needed most.
MoveOn’s voter turnout operation isn’t just focused on the presidential race—it’s also focused on taking back the Senate. And the outrageous letter that FBI Director James Comey sent to Congress last Friday could help tip the balance of the Senate to the GOP.
The election data gurus at FiveThirtyEight explain that “five races were on a knife’s edge even before Comey’s letter” and that “even a small shift could have a big effect in a lot of races.”8
Democrats need to win five seats to gain control of the Senate, and the two major-party candidates in the five crucial Senate races—in Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania—are within two percentage points of each other.9 But as Clinton’s polling has shifted this year, support for the Democratic candidates for Senate has followed.
We need to turn out the voters for the presidential race—and for the tight Senate races—but we still need to raise $220,000 for this final sprint. Will you chip in $2.70 now to help get out the vote to elect Clinton and win back the Senate?
Thanks for all you do.
—Anna, Jayne, Matt, Maria, and the rest of the team
1. “Trump Rated More Honest; Contest Stays a Dead Heat (POLL),” ABC News, November 2, 2016
2. “Clinton, Trump All but Tied as Enthusiasm Dips for Democratic Candidate,” ABC News, November 1, 2016
3. “General Election: Trump vs. Clinton,” RealClearPolitics, accessed November 2, 2016
4. “Election Update: Yes, Donald Trump Has A Path To Victory,” FiveThirtyEight, November 1, 2016
5. “Trump got the most GOP votes ever—both for and against him—and other fun facts,” The Washington Post, June 8, 2016
6. “Clinton, Trump All but Tied as Enthusiasm Dips for Democratic Candidate,” ABC News, November 1, 2016
7. “Lessons from GOTV experiments,” Yale Institution for Social and Policy Studies, accessed November 2, 2016
8. “Senate Update: Five Races Were On A Knife’s Edge Even Before Comey’s Letter,” FiveThirtyEight, October 31, 2016
Want to support our work? Senator Elizabeth Warren says, “I’m so enthusiastic about MoveOn’s smart and targeted plan to hire a network of organizers in key battleground states to mobilize and train volunteers to knock on hundreds of thousands of doors. It’s bold and ambitious—and exactly what is needed to help swing Senate races and resoundingly defeat Donald Trump.” Will you chip in to help make it all possible?
PAID FOR BY MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION, http://pol.moveon.org/. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.